National Transport Library Research Database

Research Study of sinking sequence of MV Estonia

Sponsors, duration, budget: Vinnova ; 2006-03-01 -- 2008-03-31 ; 8660000 kronorRegistration number:
  • Vinnova
Subject(s): Online resources: Abstract: Det övergripande målet med forskningsstudien är att förstå och förklara sjunkförloppet samt de underliggande orsakerna till förlusten av MV Estonia och baserat på resultaten ta fram lämpliga rekommendationer för design och operation av passagerarfartyg för att förhindra att liknande tragedier inträffar i framtiden. Upplägg och genomförande: I projektet kombineras expertis från områden som fartygsdesign, analytisk modellering, datorsimulering och modellförsöksteknik för att granska och undersöka tillgängliga uppgifter och baserat på dessa resultat utveckla sjunkhypoteser, för att testa dessa hypoteser m h a ´first-principle´ modelleringsstudier, och slutligen för att demonstrera det fastslagna sjunkförlopps-scenariot m h a fysiska modellförsök och virtuell modellering och simulering. Projektkonsortium: SSPA Sweden AB, Göteborg, Sweden; Safety at Sea Ltd, Glasgow, UK; Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN), Wageningen, The Netherlands: Chalmers University of Technology, Dept. of Shipping and Marine Technology, Göteborg, Sweden. Studien över Estonias sjunkförlopp har inbegripit ett antal datorsimuleringar och modellförsök. Studiens slutsatser är att orsaken till haveriet var en snabb förlust av stabilitet genom vatteninträngning. Fartygets otillräckliga stabilitet omöjliggjorde också en ordnad evakuering. Dock var enligt internationell sjörätt skälet till det obehindrade inträngandet av vatten på bildäck att fartyget inte uppfyllde SOLAS krav som gäller främre kollisionsskott. Det mest troliga sjunkförloppet var att slagsidan uppstod genom att vatten trängde in i fören genom den öppna bogporten och inte genom några andra skrovskador. Rampen öppnades helt och stängdes senare på grund av tyngdkraften när slagsidan gick över 90 grader. De stora sidofönstren på däcken över bildäck tålde avsevärt tryck innan de brast. Studien rekommenderar att ytterligare undersökningar av skrovet görs för att säkerställa slutsatserna. Rapporten är skriven på engelska. Abstract: The overall goal of the study is to understand the sequence and explain the underlying causes of the loss of MV Estonia and hence derive suitable recommendations on design and operation of passenger vessels in order to prevent such tragedy from happening again. To achieve this goal, the following specific project objectives are proposed: - To review available evidence pertaining to the loss - To propose alternative loss hypotheses conformant with the evidence - To build comprehensive numerical model of the MV Estonia - To perform fundamental model experiments to address issues and derive data pertinent to the study, to support and improve analytical/numerical predictions - To substantiate the hypotheses by numerical simulations and physical model experiments - To derive conclusions and to make recommendations for future safety improvements. The “Research Study on the Sinking Sequence of MV Estonia” has combined a set of forensic, design, experimentation and analytical modelling to scrutinize and review the available evidence, to synthesise this into loss hypotheses, to test these hypotheses through first-principles modelling studies, and to finally demonstrate the established scenario of the loss. It is concluded that the loss of 852 people on the night of 27/28th of September 1994 has resulted from a rapid loss of stability by MV Estonia. Therefore, all the circumstances and reasons for • breach of hull integrity allowing unobstructed ingress of sea water into the spaces of MV Estonia • inadequate stability to allow orderly ship evacuation and abandonment in case of such water ingress, were considered as the causes of the disaster. However, in view of the conclusion on the most likely sinking sequence of MV Estonia, it can confidently be stated that the lack of compliance with minimum SOLAS requirements on forward collision bulkhead by MV Estonia on the night of 27/28th of September 1994, was the main reason for unobstructed ingress of sea water into the car deck spaces and, therefore, that this was the main cause of the ship loss in the light of international maritime law. The conclusions on the most likely sinking sequence established on the basis of evidence available rest primarily on three key inferences: • The first heel resulted from water on deck flooding through forward doors, and not from flooding through any other breach of hull integrity. • The ramp opened completely and closed due to gravity after heeling beyond 90 deg angle. • The large side windows on the decks above the car deck withstood substantial pressures before breaking. To bring conclusions on the loss mechanisms to near certainty, it is highly recommended that the following further steps are taken: • The whole hull of MV Estonia is inspected and documented in detail. • The state of the ramp at the wreckage is inspected and documented in detail, and thereafter brought to surface for final confirmation of its state. • At least three windows together with their frames are brought to surface and tested for breaking pressure. Confirmation of the above key inferences would allow reaching a conclusion beyond reasonable doubt on the causes of the loss of MV Estonia.
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